sle

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Portland General Electric (NYSE: POR) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it finds the risk/reward on shares attractive at current levels. The firm raised its target price to $22 from $20.
  
• FBR Capital upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Outperform from Market Perform after channel checks indicated recent sales are driving increased traffic and easing market share losses. The firm raised its target price on shares to $37 from $21.
• Barclays upgraded Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Overweight from Equal Weight as it believes the company is well positioned for a rebound in advertising and that the valuation is compelling at current levels. The firm raised its target on shares to $20 from $15.
• Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) was raised to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  
• U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) and CB Richard Ellis (NYSE: CBG) were upgraded at Goldman to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Dolby Laboratories (NYSE: DLB) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says companies saddled with high debt loads can be found in every sector in every business.

Overleveraged. Too much debt. Need to pay down debt. How many times have you read that story?

You read it so much because it plays out every day and plays havoc with stock picking almost every time you see a savory stock down on its luck.

This weekend, as I went through the charts, I was amazed at how low some stocks have gone, stocks that I would normally say to just take a flyer on, but turn out to have so much debt, short- and long-term, that they are just too dangerous.

Consider these perhaps poisonous morsels:

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"To paraphrase its marketing slogan: 'Nobody shouldn't like Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE),'" says Steve Ralston, consumer products sector expert at Zacks Investment Research.

"From the sales of staple products, consumer non-durable companies generate solid cash flow, with which management can enhance shareholder value through share repurchases and dividend increases.

"Recently restructured consumer non-durable companies are especially attractive, particularly if they are well-managed, trade at a single-digit P/E, and yield more than 4%.

"My favorite stock for 2009 is Sara Lee. Sara Lee announced a 5-year restructuring plan (the Transformation Plan) 3-1/2 years ago. The company has been right-sized, having divested unprofitable and low margin businesses.

"Even in tough economic times, Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) should fair well thanks to its offering of non-cyclical goods," says quantitative analyst Vahan Janjigian, editor of The Forbes Growth Investor.

"Sara Lee is a leading producer of branded foods, beverages, and personal care products. Roughly 50% of sales are generated outside of the U.S. Leading brands include Ball Park, Hillshire Farm, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, State Fair, Earth Grains, and Senseo brand coffee products.

"Management launched a comprehensive restructuring plan in 2005 to focus on core products and maximize operating efficiencies. These actions yielded $218 million in annualized cost savings in fiscal 2008.

"Food commodity costs soared earlier this year. However, SLE has been able to pass costs to customers through price increases. Furthermore, it has benefited from growing volumes. Fiscal Q4 net sales grew 12.2% year-over-year to $3.5 billion.

"With its earnings announcement, management issued fiscal 2009 guidance. It expects net sales to grow 4-6% year-over-year to $13.7-14 billion and pro forma earnings to grow 8-18% to 90-98 cents per share.

"Since issuing guidance, economic conditions have deteriorated significantly. This could lead to increased trading down activity to lower-priced brands or private-label goods.

"Also, the strengthening dollar has turned the foreign exchange tailwind into a headwind. Yet food commodity and energy costs have fallen significantly, which could provide margin relief for the company."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

In the News:
Major U.S. Stocks Drop to Decade Lows
As U.S. Stocks continue their downward spiral many of the most well-known name are plunging to decade or more lows. General Motors is almost at a 70-year low. Among the other companies that have fallen and not able to get up include General Electric, Harley Davidson, Alcoa, Macy's, Microsoft, Southwest Airlines, Sara Lee, News Corp. Starwood Hotels, Kodak, Gannett, Intel, Newell Rubbermaid, International Paper and more.
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/major-sp-stocks.html

The New Subprime: FHA-Backed Loans
The subprime wolves are back. The same people whose reckless practices triggered the global financial crisis are onto a similar scheme that could cost taxpayers tons more.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_48/b4110036448352.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

In a conversation with an attorney friend of mine, who happens to be a woman, she asked for some general financial guidance. During the course of the conversation it occurred to me that women need to save more than men. There are many reasons for this, here are a few:

The first and most obvious reason women need to save more than men is that they live longer -- often without the support of a significant other. Living longer and living alone cost more money.

Second of all, women still do not have complete earnings parity with men. Some of this has to do with job type and some with history. But nevertheless, we are not there yet. If there is a 15% disparity, then a woman is starting at a disadvantage whether saving for her retirement in the future or for buying a gallon of gas today. This can only be made up by saving more and investing more. This is a worthy goal except that with less resources the difficulty is exacerbated.

In the News:
Investments That Pay You Every Month
Expect a steady flow of cash from these three portfolios.
Investments That Pay You Every Month - Kiplinger.com

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) beat Q2 expectations but offered a weak outlook.
• Clear Channel Communications Inc. (NYSE: CCU) higher Q1 profits failed to beat expectations.
• Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) just missed EPS estimates but raised its full-year guidance.
• CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS) strong Q1 results only met Wall Street expectations.
• eResearch Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: ERES) beat Q1 expectations and offered Q2 and full-year guidance.
• Foster Wheeler Ltd. (NASDAQ: FWLT) beat estimates due to a boost in its power plant segment.
• Internet Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: INET) reported strong Q1 results on ongoing M&A.
• Midway Games Inc. (NYSE: MWY) widened its loss in Q1 but beat expectations.
• News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) Q3 earnings jumped on a one-time transaction with Liberty Media.
• NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) missed Q1 estimates but was upgraded by analysts anyway.
• NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) reported a first-quarter profit above analysts' estimates.
• Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE) Q3 profits surged but fell short of analysts' expectations.
• World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: WWE) posted strong results but couldn't cover its dividend.

Upcoming results to watch for include Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR), Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI), Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Shares of consumer goods giant Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) have been taking a beating today after the company failed to meet analyst estimates for its fiscal third quarter.

At first glance, it looked like a fantastic quarter for the company, as profit rose by a remarkable 82%, but things start to look less than rosy once we take a closer look. Analysts had been expecting to see the company show earnings during the quarter of 24 cents a share, and were disappointed to see the company come in below this, with only 22 cents a share.

This is the second quarter in a row in which the company posted weaker than expected earnings, and is quickly erasing the progress that the stock has been making since the beginning of March.

Financial Stocks to Love
The subprime mortgage meltdown and resulting credit crisis have slammed financial stocks recently. But there are still some diamonds in the rough. They include Berkshire Hathaway, RBS, AFLAC, Raymond James and BOK.
Financial stocks we love - CNNMoney.com

Big Mac's Local Flavor
Once vilified for pushing America on the world, McDonald's lets countries invent their own buns, bags, and business practices. Now some ideas are making their way back home.
Big Mac's local flavor - FORTUNE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Priceline.com, Monster and Internap were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Susquehanna downgraded Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) to Neutral from Positive as they believe upside may be difficult given the macro environment, competition, and currency headwinds.
  
• JP Morgan lowered Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's expectations for higher 1Q08 operating expenses.
  
• Internap (NASDAQ: INAP) was downgraded by Merriman to Neutral from Buy as they believe upside will be limited until the company can complete its integration of the VitalStream CDN acquisition.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan cut Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• Volkswagen (OTC: VLKAY) was downgraded at WestLB to Add from Buy.
  
• Merrill downgraded Getty Realty (NYSE: GTY) to Sell from Neutral.

First oil. Then copper, then lumber, and coal. And now grain.

The solid economic growth in the world's emerging markets that's caused oil / coal and commodities prices to surge is now fully hitting the grain market.

So much so, that some food producers are calling on the U.S. government to restrict exports due to soaring prices for grains they use to make cereal and other foods. Meanwhile, some farmers are asking the U.S. Government to ease restrictions to enable farmers to plant more acres, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday [Subscription required].

For food producers, the issue involves limiting a major operating cost. During the past year, spring wheat has risen to an astounding $17.63 per bushel, up from about $4.90 a year ago. Flour, which used to cost about $15 per 100 pounds, now sells for about $45-48 per 100 pounds. Food producers say prices are increasing so fast, they can't pass along price increases quick enough to keep up.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Athenahealth, Marvell Technology, Broadcom and Nvidia were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Athenahealth (NASDAQ: ATHN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Goldman Sachs. Jefferies started shares of the stock with a Buy rating and $46 target, as they believe their estimates could prove conservative given potential upside from new and existing physicians adopting athenaClinicals.
• Kaufman Bros initiated Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) with a Hold rating and $18 target, as they believe near-term growth prospects remain uncertain and recommends waiting for more favorable entry points.
  
• The firm also initiated Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) with a Hold rating and $35 target, and believes the company's growth prospects are priced into shares following the recent rally, and started shares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Buy rating and $42 target, as they believe the company's growth opportunity and competitive strength remain intact and would be buyers at current levels.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Goldman started shares of Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) with a Neutral rating and $16 target.
  
• UBS initiated US BioEnergy (NASDAQ: USBE) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Bear Stearns inititated CarMax (NYSE: KMX) with an Underperform rating.
  
• Wachovia started Teekay Offshore Partners (NYSE: TOO) and Holly Energy Partners (NYSE: HEP) with Market Perform ratings.

Update: Yesterday's (10-17-07) Wall Street Journal (subscription) article about this investigation began "Prominent American food companies are under scrutiny in a federal probe of possible fraud and corruption in the military's food-supply operations for the Iraq war", and went on to read "The inquiry is focused on whether the food companies set excessively high prices when they sold their goods to the Army's primary food contractor for the war zone." Today's (8-18-07) WSJ article about the investigation reported a very different slant to the story, suggesting that, rather than pursuing American producers, the government was investigating the wholesaler and companies involved in the Kuwait end. Given this change, I find the story I have written below no longer substantiated, and caution readers to wait along with me for more reliable information.

In accordance with our policy of owning up to what we have written, the post will remain.

A number of American food companies including Sara Lee (NYSE:SLE), ConAgra (NYSE: CAG) and Perdue Farms Inc. have come under suspicion of conspiring with Kuwait-based Agility Corp., a logistics supplier for the U.S. troops in Iraq, to inflate food supply costs. In June, Agility received a new, one-year, $2.8 billion contract to provide life support (billeting, motor pool, dining and medical support services) to troops in Iraq. Agility, until recently known as Public Warehousing, has enjoyed a series of support contracts throughout much of the Iraq conflict.

According to Reuters, the Defense and Justice Departments are investigating allegations that Agility may have taken kickbacks from its suppliers, as well as charging the U.S. military unreasonably high prices for provender.

Agility, founded in 1979, was taken public in 1997 and is traded on the Kuwait exchange. It employs over 20,000 people in over 100 countries, with an annual revenue of $4.5 billion. In June, it was also awarded a $43.6 million contract for base operations and maintenance services at U.S. Air Force bases in Spain.

Update: ConAgra has put out a press release claiming that the DOD is looking to them as witnesses, rather than perpetrators.

Branded food companies like Kraft (NYSE: KFT) and Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) are facing competition from a source that has been an after-thought for years: private label products.

According (subscription required) to The Wall Street Journal, "Food retailers are growing more sophisticated about developing and branding their own products. They're even building brands that bear no resemblance to their store names, such as Target's Archer Farms line of gourmet oils, appetizers and frozen foods, and Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) Eating Right line of frozen dinners, cereal and salad dressings."

Of course, grocers make more money selling products they make (or buy cheaply from a third-party manufacturer without the pricing power of a strong brand) and market themselves, rather than ones the buy from a large brand.

With American consumers not feeling quite as rich as they did during the days of the housing bubble and easy credit, private label brands should continue to gain market-share. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has reported that that is already happening, as a result of the cash-strapped consumer.

That could spell trouble for companies like Kraft and Sara Lee, and it could be great for grocery stores -- higher margins. Investors may want to pick their food-related investments accordingly.